(Wine-Searcher) - Three big harvests in a row could catch up on California warns an industry insider, but it's good news for consumers.

Despite water shortages, a strong dollar making imports more affordable, and a collapse in the market for cheap wines, California is producing more wine than ever and that's only going to increase.

This was one message from the annual State of the Industry address at the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium in Sacramento on Wednesday. For the industry, it isn't actually good news; for consumers, though, "this is the best consumer market we've ever had," according to industry analyst Jon Fredrikson.

Fredrikson called it "a tale of two markets." Wine priced at less than $9 a bottle still makes up 75 percent of sales by volume, but sales have been falling since 2011. Meanwhile, wines priced $10 to $14 grew rapidly in food stores, and wines above the $20 mark are hot in fine-wine shops.

Combine the price categories, though, and you get overall wine sales growth in the U.S. of less than 1 percent in 2014, Fredrikson said, a slowdown after several years of bigger gains. Imported wines took the biggest hit, with sales down 5 percent by volume. California actually did reasonably well, with domestic sales growth of 4 percent by volume. But the overall conditions made the State of the Industry address the gloomiest in several years.

"I'm gloomy because of all the growers who were in the audience today, because their markets are failing," Fredrikson said after the presentation. "We've lost some pizzazz relative to other beverages. I think these trends are going to continue. I see three big (California) harvests backing up."

The 2014 harvest in California appears to be bigger than originally believed. Jeff Bitter, vice president of operations for Allied Grape Growers, estimated it at four million tons, the second largest ever, and only about 6 percent smaller than the 2013 harvest. This came despite some Syrah, Zinfandel and Merlot grapes being left on the vine – even in coastal areas – because growers couldn't sell them.

Because of new plantings, Bitter expects the harvest-size record to be broken again and again in the next few years; California now has more grapevines than ever.

Wine lovers can be happy that there's a shift in where grapes are being grown. In the hot, drought-stricken San Joaquin Valley, growers are pulling out vineyards in favor of almonds and other crops.

"Just since (the 2014) harvest, 15,000 acres of vineyards have been pulled out in the San Joaquin Valley," Bitter said. For perspective, that is more than the total acres of Pinot Noir in Sonoma County.

Napa and Sonoma Counties are just about planted out, but more vineyards are going into the other coastal areas of California. However, despite what seems like growing media interest in lesser-known varieties, just four grapes – Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Pinot Grigio and Pinot Noir – make up 71 percent of the new plantings in California.

The ongoing California drought is a wild card for growers. December was one of the best rain months in four years, but January – normally the peak of California's rainy season – has been dry. This hasn't affected the quality or quantity of California wine grapes, but Bitter said that won't go on forever.

"A crop is made on the vine a year ahead of time," Bitter said. "We've had very nice springs, warm and dry, three years in a row."

However, federal agencies have severely cut back shipments of water to grapegrowers, so they must rely on well water, which tends to have a higher concentration of salts.