(Wines&Vines) - As the last bins are delivered to wineries in California, the early projection is that 2014 yields in the nation’s largest wine grape-producing state will total 3.8 to 3.9 million tons.

That’s the word from Nat DiBuduo, president and CEO of the Fresno, Calif.-based Allied Grape Growers, which represents nearly 600 growers across all of the state’s grapegrowing regions. DiBuduo said the harvest in the North Coast has been just under average—and in some cases “significantly lower” than in 2013, while the San Joaquin Valley will likely produce a crop that will also be smaller than last year. 

He said the Central Coast, which includes Monterey County and the Paso Robles AVA, is mixed with some vineyards producing average to above-average crops, while other sites came in lower.

 Statewide, DiBuduo said, “The unknown is how many new vineyards came into production this year that may not be on the record.”

No contract, no luck for many growers

Yet DiBuduo is certain many vineyards in the San Joaquin Valley are going to be pulled because growers are struggling to find good prices or buyers. “It’s strictly economics,” he said. “This year you had the ‘withs’ and the ‘withouts.’”

Growers “with” grape contracts fared well, but those “without” struggled to find a buyer. Non-contracted grapes that did find buyers received prices as low as $100 to $250 per ton. DiBuduo said this affected “thousands and thousands” of tons—or 10% to 15% of the valley’s total production.