(Wines&Vines) - The warmest winter on record is officially over, and a potentially long, dry growing season has begun. How is the weird weather affecting California vineyards?

With the help of regional association directors, Wines & Vines took a virtual zigzag down the state this week, asking grapegrowers about bud break, frost threat and potential mitigation, and their outlook for the year ahead. Look for dispatches from other California locations later this week.

Although results vary in terms of date, virtually all growers are expecting a smaller crop than the past two vintages, and frost control and water supplies are on everyone’s minds.

 Napa County

 Allison Cellini at Renteria Vineyard Management said, “We have calculated that we are three weeks earlier than last year in Carneros Chardonnay bud break, and two to three weeks earlier in Cabernet throughout the valley.

 “Water situations at most of our ranches are stable now with the exception of a few ranches that depended on drain tiles to pump water in the reservoirs. At these ranches…we are preparing to truck water in,” she reported. The company is checking its wind machines and overhead sprinklers, and (it) has already seen some close calls for frost temperatures in Calistoga and below-freezing temperatures in Pope Valley, albeit without the need for frost protection, Cellini said.

 Amy Warnock at Orin Swift Cellars in St. Helena offered an optimistic viewpoint: “2013 was an early season, and so far bud break dates in 2014 have tracked 10-12 days even earlier than 2013. A longer growing season gives the grapes more time to accumulate sugar, evolve acids, and soften tannins before the fall rainstorms. The rain we received at the beginning of this month came at the perfect time, giving vines a drink before pushing out of dormancy.

 “With such early growth, we will all have to be on alert for frost conditions, as we still have over a month window where the frost risk is high. With more rains predicted for next week, 2014 has started with near-ideal conditions.”

 Sonoma County

Sonoma County Winegrowers chairman Brad Petersen, who serves as vineyard manager at Silver Oak Cellars and Twomey Cellars, said: “We’ve got bud break in several vineyards. Cabernet Sauvignon in the northern Alexander Valley is out 0.25 to 1.5 inches; Sauvignon Blanc in Russian River is out 0.25 to 0.75 inches. Zinfandel in Alexander Valley is out 1-2 inches as well. It looks like we are about two weeks earlier than last year.”