(Wines&Vines) - A report from the Australian research arm of investment banking giant Morgan Stanley is creating buzz in the wine community with its announcement that in 2012 global wine production “fell to its lowest levels in more than 40 years.” But some North American wine industry experts see the situation differently.

By the numbers

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) just announced that global wine production is forecast to climb 8.8%, to the highest level in seven years, as grape harvests rebound in Spain, Argentina and France.

The group said that the 2013 vintage should hit 281 million hectoliters (7.4 billion gallons), up from 258.2 million hectoliters in 2012. (The tally previously was estimated at 250.9 million hectoliters.) Italy will remain the largest producer, followed by France and Spain.

“After five modest harvests in a row and an exceptionally weak 2012 harvest, wine production in 2013 can be qualified as relatively high,” reported the OIV. “The wine world this year returns to the levels of 2006.”

Supply and demand

By contrast, Morgan Stanley reported, “Declining global production deepens supply shortage. The global wine industry has seen an excess of 600 million unit cases (almost one quarter of global consumption) in 2004, reduced to just 1 million unit cases in 2012—largely through an ongoing structural reduction in capacity. After adjusting for non-wine uses, demand for wine exceeded supply by 300 million cases in 2012, the deepest shortfall in over 40 years of records.”