Vice Squad: Constellation Could Ride Millennial Craft Beer and Wine Craze

Apr 12, 2016

(Thestreet) - Constellation Brands (STZ) -- a member of Real Money's "Vice Squad" watch list -- is set to continue is market-beating stock climb, some analysts say, and that's largely due to the mounting appetite among Millennials for wine and beers.

Constellation's share price has grown by more than 6x over the past five years, with stock up more than 10% so far in 2016.

And the Victor, N.Y.-based producer of alcoholic beverage booked about $1.9 billion in wine sales in the first nine months of last year, or 88% of its net wine and spirits sales. Contellation, the maker of Corona and Pacifico beer labels, also reported $2.8 billion in net beer sales for the period.

Constellation has yet to file its annual 10-K with the SEC, but a peek into Constellation's earnings beat for the last quarter -- as well as talk surrounding an IPO of Constellation's 1,700-acre Canadian wine businesses -- sent shares soaring.

"Between 2005 and 2010, there was a surge in high frequency wine drinkers from 7.9% to 13.9% of the legal-drinking-age population, driven by the Millennials," Wine Market Council researchers Ashley Teplin and and Holly Nuss said in a recent report. "This also accounted for a decline in the occasional wine drinker population from 26.2% to 20.3%"

And Pivitol Research analyst Timothy Ramey forsees continued sales growth in both Constellation's beer and wine segments throughout 2015.

"It is hard to overplay how attractive Constellation remains with its unique meld of powerful top-line growth, high and improving margins, and the positive optionality of an improving balance sheet and accelerating free cash flow," he said in a recent report. "It is even more interesting to think that its growth prospects and opportunities to invest cash at high rates of return have never been greater."

Analysts at Wells Fargo Securities also appear to share Ramey's sentiment, noting continued sales growth across its beer and wine labels. And while Constellation is known for giant labels like Corona and Pacifico, the brewing giant has built out a vast line-up of smaller, craft labels, including last November's $1 billion purchase of California's Ballast Point Brewing & Spirits.

"Constellation Brands is a leader in the alcoholic beverage industry with a long runway of growth through its strong portfolio of leading import and craft beer brands and diversified wine and spirits brands," the analyst group led by Bonnie Herzog said in a recent report, emphasizing the benefits of Constellation's announcement last week to acquire The Prisoner Wine Company for $285 million.

Wells Fargo said The Prisoner Wine Company is particularly attractive because of its "portfolio of 5 super-luxury wine brands with 30% volume compound annual growth rate for the past three years."


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