(WFP) - The mantras to succeed, excel, and prosper continue to spark the $3 billion California wine industry as a world leader in production and sales, amid the challenges of potentially more frequent and severe drought patterns, plus increasing foreign and domestic product competition.
A stabilizing factor for the California industry is that baseline wine grape production appears cemented in the four-million-ton-plus range moving forward, barring a major weather malady, with visions of a 4.5 million ton crop on the horizon.
“Based on current acreage projections, I think California wine grape production could, should, and will be a 4-million-ton market in normal years,” says Nat DiBuduo, president and chief executive officer of Allied Grape Growers (AGG) in Fresno, Calif.
AGG is a 50-plus-year-old California wine grape grower marketing cooperative which represents nearly 600 members.
“With Mother Nature and vineyards responding appropriately, we should hit 4 million tons production statewide from this point forward,” DiBuduo said during the State of the Industry session during the 2016 Unified Wine & Grape Symposium at Sacramento, Calif.
Looking at 2016 production, AGG predicts wine grape tonnage at 4.14 million based on 565,000 acres with an average yield of 7.33 tons per acre, barring a weather setback.
Looking to next year, DiBuduo believes 2017 tonnage could hit the 4.20 million mark on 571,000 bearing acres with average yields at 7.36 tons per acre. He pegs 2018 wine grape production at about 4.25 million tons statewide on 575,000 acres at 7.40 tons per acre
These figures are based on 1 percent coastal and 6 percent interior attrition rates.
And the Grapevine Survey says...
AGG’s predictions are based on findings from its annual Grapevine Nursery Survey on wine grape vine sales, along with data from the State of California and other information.
Speaking to the standing-room-only Unified crowd, DiBuduo pegged the 2015 California wine grape crop at 3.7 million tons, slightly lower than the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s 3.8 million on crop. These figures are smaller than the 2013 crop of 4.25 million tons and 2012’s 4.02 million ton crop.
He says the smaller 2015 crop should help bring supply and demand into balance.
“Hopefully this year’s smaller crop will allow wineries to use the large crops of recent years so we don’t have too much wine in the tanks,” he said. “We need some balance going forward for the growers and the wineries.”
