State’s Wine Industry Remains Strong Despite Threats From Drought, Smaller 2015 Crop

Jan 29, 2016

(Noozhawk) - With its lion’s share of the U.S. market, California’s wine industry continues to thrive despite some global uncertainty about the economy, the drought and competition from the booming craft beer industry, according to panelists at Unified Wine & Grape Symposium’s State of the Industry in Sacramento Wednesday morning.

The three panelists — Nat DiBuduo, president and CEO of Allied Grape Growers, Steve ​Fredericks, president of Turrentine Brokerage, and Jon Fredrikson of Gomberg, ​Fredrikson & Associated — were introduced by moderator Mike Veseth, editor of the Wine Economist and a resident of Washington.

The three California-based panelists incorporated a broad swath of the California, Pacific Northwest and global wine industries, focusing on vineyard acreage, consumers’ favorite wine grape varietals and market trends.

Based on figures given to Allied Growers by its viticulture members, DiBuduo estimated that the 2015 crush report number will be 3.7 million tons. The annual crush report will be released in the coming weeks.

That figure is down from the 2014 volume, which was totaled 3.89 million tons, he noted.

All panelists noted how the “landscape” of the state’s wine industry has changed since 2010: Bearing acreage continues has increased by 11 percent, and, in general, viticulturists strive for more production (tons) per acre, he noted, which has translated to yields increasing by an average of 5 percent.

The newest vineyards are mostly in the coastal regions, which included Monterey and Santa Barbara counties.

As consumers’ tasting preferences evolve, some vineyards replace existing vines with more popular grape varietals, such as malbec, petite sirah and petite verdot — three varietals that are popular in red blends, DiBuduo noted.

Between the 2014 and 2015 harvests, 21,000 acres were removed, and since the 2015 harvest, 20,000 additional acres have been pulled, he said.

“Acreage removals will likely continue at this pace, which is a necessary one, based on current shipment trends and grape-purchase activity,” he noted.

Referring to the new-to-plant topic, vineyard owners and managers purchased more new grape vines in 2013 than in years since: Nurseries sold 30 million new vines in 2013, 27 million in 2014 and 19 million in 2015, DiBuduo noted.

He estimates that 16,000 new acres will be planted in California in 2016.

Of the grapevines planted new in 2015, 65 percent were red grapes and 35 percent were white, he said.

Of the red grapes planted, 30.5 percent were the ever-popular cabernet sauvignon varietal, and of the white grapes, 13.1 percent were chardonnay grapes.

Despite its popularity with consumers, chardonnay has lost ground to pinot grigio when it comes to new plantings: 17 percent of the white grapes planted were this Italian varietal.

Rounding out the top four spots for most-planted grape varietal is pinot noir.

DiBuduo noted that zinfandel, for decades a popular California-grown variety, fell out of the top-four varietal list after 2013.

He and the other speakers divided consumer and market wine retail pricing into four categories: Value (bottles priced at $7 and below); Mid (from $7 to $10); High ($10 to $20) and Luxury ($20 and up).

The wine regions attached to those four categories, are, respectively, the interior of the state, (excluding Lodi and the Delta), the San Joaquin valley, the coastal regions, and then Napa, Sonoma, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.

To applause from the crowd, estimated at 700 people, DiBuduo personally congratulated the Lodi Wine Grape Commission for its booming success in the state’s mid-range segment ($7 to $10 per bottle).

In 2015, California exported 44 million cases of wine to the greater U.S. market, ​DiBuduo told the audience. Sparkling wines, gaining in popularity, displayed a 10-percent increase in sales.

All three panelists noted that threats to California’s continued success in the export market are imports (Australia, Spain, Italy and France being the biggest contenders), and the state’s new water policy in the face of the ongoing drought.

Washington and Oregon continue to grow their respective wine industries — Washington, in particular, has seen a 66-percent increase in acreage during the past decade.

In the luxury retail category (bottles more than $20), one threat to wineries continued success is the scarcity of resources, such as water, and the economy in general, since consumers are likely to buy lower-priced wine when they feel any risk of a recession, the speakers noted.

Water scarcity will absolutely impact how the wine industry does business in the future, and labor costs will likely be an issue, said panelist Steve Fredricks, president of Turrentine Brokerage, an expert in sales of bulk wines and grapes.

He compared the ratio of bulk grapes for sale this month with the amount one year ago: 12 million gallons this year versus 20 million gallons last year.

Oregon continues to boost its presence in the bulk wine market with high quality pinot noir, Fredricks noted.

The final panelist, Jon Fredrikson, opened by saying “wine is booming,” and noted that the strongest growth is in wines priced between $10 and $14 per bottle, especially in grocery stores.

However, the wine industry needs to pay attention to the craft beer industry, he noted, as both the number of craft breweries and types of craft beers available has doubled in recent years.

Fredrikson closed the seminar by announcing the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium’s Winery of the Year: Michael David Winery, owned by brothers Michael and David Phillips and based in Lodi.


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