(Wines&Vines) - The California wine industry fell short of its “new normal” of 4 million tons harvested in 2015, according to speakers at the Unified Wine & Grape Symposium, which continued today in Sacramento. Covering topics from grapegrowing to economics, three wine industry personalities collaborated to advise attendees about the “State of the Industry.”

Nat DiBuduo, president and CEO of Allied Grape Growers, estimated 3.7 million tons of wine grapes were crushed during the 2015 harvest in California, North America’s largest wine producer. 

In spite of the noticeable reduction in yields since 2013, when state wineries crushed a record-breaking 4.25 million tons, DiBuduo said he expects California to return north of the 4 million-ton mark in 2016. He predicted a harvest of 4.14 million tons in 2016, 4.20 million tons in 2017 and 4.26 million tons in 2018.

His estimate calls for a 1% attrition rate among vineyards in coastal areas and 6% attrition in the state’s inland areas. Yet tonnage will continue to climb, DiBuduo predicted, due to average yields for California wine grapes gradually increasing from the 6.67 tons per acre Allied Grape growers reported for 2015 to 7.4 tons per acre in 2018. 

Allied Grape Growers is an association for California grape farmers, and DiBuduo’s data is based largely on the group’s survey of state nurseries, which voluntarily share sales information such as how many vines they’ve sold, where they’ll be planted and which cultivars are chosen.