(PD) - The North Coast wine industry remains in a relatively strong position going into 2016 despite a much lighter grape harvest this year and persistent environmental concerns, especially as its water use comes under greater scrutiny in a drought era, industry analysts said Thursday.

They are optimistic that the healthy state of the region’s wine industry will continue into the new year as sales remain strong for the premium wines — those priced at $10 and more per bottle — that are the hallmark of Napa and Sonoma counties.

But speakers at the North Coast Wine Industry Expo held at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds also noted that for every likely positive, there was a potential negative that could impact the fortunes of the multibillion-dollar industry in the coming year, whether from the environment or the fickle nature of consumers.

“California domestic (sales) and exports are up, but growth has slowed down,” said Damien Wilson, chair of wine business education at Sonoma State University.

While the number of global wine drinkers has doubled since 1980, Wilson noted consumption levels have not kept pace. For example, the U.S. wine market grew 0.4 percent in 2014, the smallest increase in years, he said.

“Global consumption failed to move the volume for an entire generation,” Wilson said.

Much of the focus Thursday was on the 2015 grape harvest, which was much smaller than the three previous bumper crops. Glenn Proctor, a partner at San Rafael wine and grape broker Ciatti Co., said he estimates this year’s crop could be down as much as 24 percent from 2014 when the final numbers are announced early next year.

The short crop has brought the wine market back into balance. There are now 17 million gallons of wine available on the bulk market, half the amount at the beginning of the year, Proctor noted. Many wineries pulled their products off the market, given the smaller harvest this year.

“What the short crop has done in 2015 has changed the marketplace,” he said. “We see buyers becoming buyers again … the sellers have gotten a little more coy.”

Strong demand will remain for local pinot noir and cabernet grapes, growers noted, continuing a trend of recent years, especially after this year’s light crop.

Bill Pauli, president of Pauli Ranch and Yokayo Wine Co., said he estimated the pinot noir crop in Sonoma County was down this year by 1.1 million cases over the average of the previous three years, while the Mendocino County pinot crop decreased by 175,000 cases this year over the same time period.

Smaller wineries will be hurt more by the shortage than large companies, which can source grapes from throughout the state as well as Oregon and Washington, Pauli said.