(Wines&Vines) - The 2015 California grape harvest is short, but it’s not clear how short. Estimates range from 50% or more off normal in parts of Paso Robles to just a little lower than average in some areas.

After three bumper crops, the lower numbers may even be welcome some places.

Nat DiBuduo, president and CEO of Allied Grape Growers, generally has a good handle on crop size, as his organization represents many growers in both the Central Valley and coastal counties. DiBuduo is currently estimating “somewhat below 3.8 million tons, lower than the new normal of 4 million tons.” (Last year’s crop hit 3.9 million tons, and 2013 was 4.24 million tons.)

Across the Central Valley

The California Association of Wine Grapegrowers reports that DiBuduo said white grapes harvested in the San Joaquin Valley had average to below-average yields, but some varieties (such as Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Grigio) are in higher demand.

In spite of shorter crops, some growers are already pulling out vines and likely to plant nut trees, said DiBuduo. “Vines planted two or three years (ago) are coming into production, and there’s still plenty of wine in tanks to meet the demand for less expensive wines.”

Bill Berryhill with Berryhill Family Vineyards farms wine grapes in the Northern San Joaquin Valley in Stanislaus County, Calif., and near Clements, east of Lodi, Calif., in San Joaquin County. He expects yields to range from normal to down 10%.

Stuart Spencer is program manager for the Lodi Winegrape Commission and owner and winemaker at St. Amant Winery. He said, “In Lodi it looks like it’s going to be a light average year in 2015. Depending on the field—and there was variability across Lodi—most growers came in a bit below an average size crop.

“Some of the younger fields performed fairly well, and some of the older fields not so well. From what we’ve been hearing, the crop in Lodi didn’t come in as light as it did in the coastal and foothill regions. That said, in 2014 Lodi had a fairly average size crop compared to other regions, coming off the very large harvests of 2012 and 2013. Quality across the board in 2015 looked to be exceptional with high acids and good flavors and very few problems with the fruit.”

Also in Lodi, Aaron Lange of LangeTwins Family Winery and Vineyards said crop size is ranging from average to below average.