Le Pin the Best Bet for Wine Investors

Mar 31, 2015

(Wine-Searcher) - A new report highlights the woeful return on investment for buyers of top Bordeaux wines.

A report into Bordeaux pricing indicates that out of 50 top Bordeaux châteaux, only Le Pin has been consistently worth buying en primeur.

The Liv-ex Bordeaux 2014 price guide reveals that only four châteaux – Angelus, Calon-Ségur, Le Petit Mouton and Le Pin – have shown meaningful positive returns since the 2009 vintage.

Even for those properties, 2013 proved too much. Angelus found 2013 "a difficult sell", despite showing good returns for investors on all previous vintages. Calon-Ségur was the same; though its prices have remained stable throughout the decade, 2013 generated negative returns. Only Pomerol's Le Pin, with an average in-bond bottle price of €1583 ($1723), has bucked the trend.

The publication pulls together 10-year price statistics on 50 châteaux, including all the first growths and the top right bank and Sauternes properties. The results make shocking reading.

While ex-châteaux release prices increased by 250 per cent between the 2008 and 2010 vintages, secondary market values went up only 53 per cent in the same period. "Customers have lost money for the last five vintages," the guide noted.

"New release prices have been slow to adjust to changing market reality. With customers sitting on sizable losses, prices will need to be competitive relative to stocks already available, to entice customers back."

Some of Bordeaux's biggest names – Cheval Blanc, Lafite, Haut-Brion, Mouton, Margaux, Latour, Cos d'Estournel and some 30 other properties – have left purchasers of their wines hopelessly in the red.

Price of 2009 and 2010 wines slump

Those who bought 2009 Lafite at the merchant release price of €1318 ($1435) a bottle saw its value almost halve before they took delivery in 2011. Liv-ex now calculates its price at €679 ($739), a drop of 49 per cent on its release price. The retail price has likewise fallen. Wine Searcher's database shows the retail price at release in 2010 was $1544 (excluding sales tax). It peaked in 2011 at $2040 and has fallen away to its current average of $1275, a fall of 37.5 percent.

Lafite 2010's value has dropped by 47 per cent, while 2011, '12 and '13 have gone down by 16 to 23 per cent, the report said.

The same story is repeated across Bordeaux, with 2009 and 2010 – the highest-priced vintages – faring the worst. Subsequent vintages, too, show losses almost as serious as properties continued to put up prices.

Even when prices go down they are not matched by increased sales. Château Pichon Baron, for example, continues to show negative returns despite dropping in price from €143 ($155) in 2010 to €78 ($85) in 2011.

Liv-ex compares prices and sales to Robert Parker's scores, noting that the US critic has had considerable influence, and says his absence this year as he hands Bordeaux over to the UK critic Neal Martin adds to the "considerable challenge" the region faces.

There won't be a repeat of Parker's extremely high rating of 2008, which the critic compared to the great 2000 and 2005 vintages, sending prices rocketing.

"Unlike 2008, there will be no Robert Parker…to save the day. Price, perhaps more than ever, will be a key to success in this year’s campaign."

Finally, Liv-ex says, there is some cause for optimism, mainly based on the fact that "a tentative recovery in sentiment, prices and volumes is underway … the 2014 vintage is showing early promise [and] the weak Euro against both the pound and the dollar will help buyers in Bordeaux's core markets."


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